10mEarthChance: 2.44%Expect: 440h20m
10mEnchanted EarthChance: 2.44%Expect: 440h20m
1h 40mEnchanted FrozenChance: 2.44%Expect: 438h50m
28hEnchanted TotemChance: 2.44%Expect: 412h30m
19h 30mEnchanted TundraChance: 2.44%Expect: 421h
14hEnchanted WoolyChance: 2.44%Expect: 426h30m
1hFrozenChance: 2.44%Expect: 439h30m
24hTotemChance: 4.88%Expect: 196h15m
12hTundraChance: 39.02%Expect: 15h32m
8h 30mWoolyChance: 39.02%Expect: 19h2m
What is "Expect"?
In short, "Expect" is a way to judge whether or not a combo is better/worse than another combo to get a desired dragon. A higher "Expect" is a worse combo to use, it means you would expect to be trying longer than with a lower "Expect".
The "Expect" time is the average amount of time you would expect to take to start breeding that dragon by breeding Frozen and Tundra over and over again. It is based off the weighted average time of the "misses" (eg. other dragons and their breeding times) that can result in the combo.
Don't confuse "Expect" with the breeding time of the dragon. The dragon's breeding time is listed in the small bar under the icon for the dragon.
How are Chances Calculated?
The "Chance" is calculated based on a weighting system that has been developed for this calculator. These weights are based on hundreds of trial breedings with a few select combos. Enough to give a decent idea of what is going on, but certainly don't expect them to be exact. While they may not be exact, no weighting at all is definitely very wrong. We all know how much harder it can be to get those Enchanted dragons for instance! So this gets us closer to the truth, even if not all the way there.
From available data, it appears that the most significant weighting is based on the number of elements a dragon has, and whether or not it is Enchanted.
- 1 Element and/or Enchanted: 1
- 2 Element: 16
- 3 Element: 8
Each dragon's "Chance" is it's weight divided by the sum of weights for all possible results. We will be updating the weights as more data is available, as changes are made to the breeding system, as new types of dragons are added to the game, and as more breedable dragons are added.
But I Got ...
When dealing with probabilities, not everyone will get the same result. Some will get lucky and get what they are after very quickly, others will get unlucky and have to try for a lot longer.
Think of it like flipping a coin. We all know the odds are 50:50, but you still wouldn't expect to alternate perfectly between heads and tails. You certainly wouldn't expect to get half-heads and half-tails in one flip! You will get some streaks of heads and some of tails, but over enough flips of the coin you would expect to get close to a 50:50 ratio.
The "Chance" and "Expect" here are to give a way of judging combos against each other. A combo that gives your desired dragon(s) with lower "Expect" times would be better than one with higher "Expect" times. No one can predict how lucky (or unlucky) you will be when actually trying!
If you do happen to try the same combo many times (100+) and record the results of those breedings, feel free to share it with us so we can more precisely define the weighting or spot any cases we aren't account for properly. Thanks!
And good luck!